BGuthrie Photos: Natl Museum of Natural History -- Event: "Will the Rainforests Survive?” symposium

Natl Museum of Natural History -- Event: "Will the Rainforests Survive?” symposium:

Bruce Guthrie Photos Home Page: [Click here] to go to Bruce Guthrie Photos home page.

Description of Pictures: The Smithsonian Institution announces a tropical science symposium in early January 2009, as a critical review of threats to tropical biodiversity. “Will the Rainforests Survive? New Threats and Realities in the Tropical Extinction Crisis” offers cutting-edge science and first-class entertainment and controversy, with talks from some of the world’s top tropical scientists.
In sequence:
* Welcoming Remarks: Cristián Samper (Director, National Museum of Natural History), and G. Wayne Clough (Secretary, Smithsonian Institution)
* Introduction and Background to Symposium: William F. Laurance (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute)
* Loss and Recovery of the World's Humid Tropical Forests: Gregory P. Asner (Carnegie Institution)
* Agents of Extinction: Do Historical Shifts in Who Exploits Tropical Forests Provide New Opportunities for Conservation? Thomas K. Rudel (Rutgers University)
* Prospects for Tropical Forest Biodiversity in a Human-Modified World: Robin L. Chazdon (University of Connecticut)
* Extinction Proneness Among Different Groups of Organisms: Are We Really Losing 100 Species a Day? Nigel E. Stork (University of Melbourne)
* Draining the Tropical Forests: Loss of Wildlife to Hunting and Trade: Elizabeth L. Bennett (Wildlife Conservation Society)
* The Future of Tropical Species on a Warmer Planet: S. Joseph Wright (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute)
* Islands of Survival: Will Tropical Nature Reserves Be Arks for Imperiled Species? William F. Laurance (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute)
* Practical Strategies for Conservation: Claudio Valladares-Padua (Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas and Wildlife Trust Alliance)
* Synopsis of Main Conclusions and Points of Controversy: S. Joseph Wright (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute)
* Speaker Panel Discussion: Cristián Samper (National Museum of Natural History)
* Concluding Remarks: Cristián Samper (National Museum of Natural History)
* Symposium Reception

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Copyrights: All pictures were taken by amateur photographer Bruce Guthrie (me!) who retains copyright on them. Free for non-commercial use with attribution. See the [Creative Commons] definition of what this means. "Photos (c) Bruce Guthrie" is fine for attribution. (Commercial use folks including AI scrapers can of course contact me.) Feel free to use in publications and pages with attribution but you don't have permission to sell the photos themselves. A free copy of any printed publication using any photographs is requested. Descriptive text, if any, is from a mixture of sources, quite frequently from signs at the location or from official web sites; copyrights, if any, are retained by their original owners.

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Specific picture descriptions: Photos above with "i" icons next to the bracketed sequence numbers (e.g. "[1] ") are described as follows:
1. NHTEC1_090112_019.JPG: Cristián Samper (Director, National Museum of Natural History)
2. NHTEC1_090112_115.JPG: G. Wayne Clough (Secretary, Smithsonian Institution)
3. NHTEC1_090112_204.JPG: William F. Laurance (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute) Some of his slides: Are We on the Verge of a Tropical Extinction Crisis? Various authors have argued so: - Key justification for new reserves and conservation initiatives Dirzo & Raven 2003 suggest that: - Only 5-10% of old-growth tropical forest will likely survive by 2050 - Perhaps 50-75% of all tropical species could become extinct or committed to extinction, based on species-area curves Wright & Muller-Landau (2006a, 2006b): The Future of Tropical Forest Species Seriously challenge idea of large-scale extinctions from habitat conversion. Difficult to ignore: - Prominent scientists - Initially presented as right's ATBC presidential address - Key conclusions were widely distributed in a press release Responses to WML: Brook et al (2006) Biotropica Gardner et al (2007) Biotropica Sloan (2007) Biotropica Laurance (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution Comments from referees: - "Their argument is just plain dangerous... We should hit them hard--and with one voice." - "I know you have to work with Wright, but you're being far too diplomatic and nice." The WML Argument: Strong relationship between net forest cover and population density -- especially rural density -- in tropical nations. Population Growth in Developing Nations: * (1) Growth is generally slowing. (2) A strong urbanization trend is expected. (3) Rural densities expected to plateau, at least in Latin America and tropical Asia * based on median projection of UN Population Division. Species-Area Relationship: Population projections used to predict future forest cover for each nation. Species-area relationship used to predict species losses for Asian, African, and American tropics Key Predictions of WML: Just 21-24% and 16-35% of all species will be threatened with extinction in the Asian and African tropics, respectively. Extinctions will be even lower in Neotropics because more forest will survive More Reasons for Limited Extinctions: Endangered species do not disappear immediately As rural populations decline, secondary forests should proliferate, buffering many species from extinction Past extinction filters have already removed the most vulnerable species from ecosystems Welcome to the Debate Discourse Dialogue Diatribe
4. NHTEC1_090112_255.JPG: Population Growth in Developing Nations: * (1) Growth is generally slowing. (2) A strong urbanization trend is expected. (3) Rural densities expected to plateau, at least in Latin America and tropical Asia * based on median projection of UN Population Division.
5. NHTEC1_090112_263.JPG: Species-Area Relationship: Population projections used to predict future forest cover for each nation. Species-area relationship used to predict species losses for Asian, African, and American tropics
6. NHTEC1_090112_302.JPG: Gregory P. Asner (Carnegie Institution) Various slides: Messages: Deforestation remains the dominant pattern of tropical forest change worldwide. Regrowth of tropical forests is substantial but remains in the geographic minority. Selective logging is not deforestation, but it is as widespread (or more so) than deforestation. All of the deforestation, logging and especially regrowth estimates come from caveats related to limited satellite technology. In the face of rapid deforestation and forest degradation, the tropical biodiversity safety net provided by intact forests is highly frayed and uncertain.
7. NHTEC1_090112_342.JPG: Land-use Transitions and Tropical Deforestation
8. NHTEC1_090112_346.JPG: Deforestation Patterns: Small vs. Large Operations
9. NHTEC1_090112_349.JPG: Deforestation Rates in the 1970s % per year -- Central America -- roughly 2.3% South America -- roughly 1.0% West Africa -- roughly 0.9% Central Africa -- roughly 0.6% East Africa -- roughly 0.7% Southeast Asia -- roughly 1.4%
10. NHTEC1_090112_352.JPG: Deforestation and Short-Term Regrowth in the 1990s
11. NHTEC1_090112_356.JPG: Deforestation Varies by Region
12. NHTEC1_090112_367.JPG: Forest Losses: 1980s to 1990s
13. NHTEC1_090112_368.JPG: Deforestation from 2000-2005
14. NHTEC1_090112_377.JPG: The Situation Today: Part 1
15. NHTEC1_090112_379.JPG: Satellite Mapping of Regrowth in Puerto Rico 1951-2000
16. NHTEC1_090112_383.JPG: The Situation Today: Parts 1 and 2
17. NHTEC1_090112_391.JPG: The Situation Today: Parts 1, 2, and 3
18. NHTEC1_090112_394.JPG: Deforestation, Logging and Regrowth in Humid Tropical Forests of Central and South America
19. NHTEC1_090112_454.JPG: Thomas K. Rudel (Rutgers University)
20. NHTEC1_090112_499.JPG: The Post-Independence Destructive Dynamic in Sparsely Populated Tropical Forests
21. NHTEC1_090112_544.JPG: Robin L. Chazdon (University of Connecticut) Various slides: 1. Most of tropical biodiversity lives outside of reserves 80% of Mesoamerican forest has been converted to agriculture, with scattered remnants of forest and other forms of tree cover. 2. The most vulnerable forest-requiring species may require intact reserves for survival, but many forest species can persist in modified habitats. Nearly half of the birds native to Las Cruces area of Costa Rica occur in deforested countryside (Hughes et al 2002). Where is biodiversity found in human-modified landscapes: - Remnant forest patches - Riparian strips - Secondary forest patches - Remnant trees - Agroforests - Plantations - Living fences What species are present in human-modified landscapes? - Disturbance specialists - Forest specialists - Generalists 3. Forest biodiversity with human-modified landscapes generally declines along a broad gradient of structural complexity
22. NHTEC1_090112_634.JPG: Nigel E. Stork (University of Melbourne) Various slides: What traits make species more extinction prone? - Large body size - Small (restricted) ranges - Low fecundity - Higher trophic level - High specificity to another organism - Low physiological/behavioral adaptability Extinctions over the geological time frame: - At least 96% of extinctions occurred outside major mass extension events. - Background rate of one extinction/million species/year (E/MSY) (May, Lawton & Stork 1995) Global Extinctions: - 2-3 million years wave of extinctions of megafauna due to emergence of hominids - Half of the world's megafauna (>45 kilos) extinct -- particularly in Australia, Eurasia, Americas, Madagascar - Over last 1,000 years, massive loss of ratites and other birds on Pacific and other oceanic islands - Loss of amphibians due to disease and climate change - Overall, about 300 vertebrates recorded as globally extinct in the last century -- 0.4% of vertebrates since year 1600 - 50 E/MSY Extinction rates in birds: - Background rate of 1 species extinction/million species/year (E/MSY) (May et al 1995) - Pimm et al PNAS 2006: --- 1.3% of birds extinct since 1500 = 26 E/MSY --- But three factors increase rate: ----- Numbers known extinctions before 1800 is increasing ----- Taxonomy increasing numbers ----- Some species are probably extinct --- Therefore corrected rate = 100 E/MSY --- Predict end of 21st Century rate = 1,000 E/MSY - But recognize birds poor predictors of other taxa What does this mean for global insect extinction rates? (1) 1% of birds and mammals extinct since 1600 (2) This suggests 0.14% extinctions for insects. (3) Assuming 8 million insect species on Earth then approximately 11-24,000 have gone extinct since 1600 (4) Even if all those are lost in last 50 years, then this is equivalent to 5-10 a week (not 100 a day)! (5) Smith et al suggest 12-55 fold increase in extinction rates for birds and mammals over next 300 years (6) RER would suggest 1.7-7.7% insect extinction over next 300 years (7) Equivalent to 100-500,000 insect species. Summary: - Global extinction rates largely based on species-area relationship. - Loss or change of habitat does not automatically translate into species extinctions - Global extinction of species much rarer than widely thought. - Most confined to islands. - Mostly a phenomenon of vertebrates - Extinction threats vary for different taxa - Some groups may be much less threatened -- "Relative extinction rates" - Co-extinctions probably also rare
23. NHTEC1_090112_691.JPG: % global loss per decade
24. NHTEC1_090112_695.JPG: Major groups of organisms: described species as proportions of the global total Insects, you'll note, account for about 60% of all species Vertebrates are only 2.7%
25. NHTEC1_090112_744.JPG: Extinctions over the geological time frame: - At least 96% of extinctions occurred outside major mass extension events. - Background rate of one extinction/million species/year (E/MSY) (May, Lawton & Stork 1995)
26. NHTEC1_090112_757.JPG: Extinction in birds
27. NHTEC2_090112_001.JPG: Cristián Samper (Director, National Museum of Natural History)
28. NHTEC2_090112_021.JPG: Elizabeth L. Bennett (Wildlife Conservation Society) Various slides: Hunting is a greater problem in tropical forests than in many other habitats. In this talk, I'll look at: - Why hunting of tropical forest wildlife is such a problem; - The current scale of hunting and wildlife trade; - Very briefly, the potential impacts of disease on forest wildlife; - Effects of hunting on wildlife populations, forest biodiversity, and forest peoples; - What can be done about it. Current scale of commercial trade: - In Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, 13,000 wild mammals sold/year - Ho Chi Minh City has more than 1,500 restaurants selling wildlife meat - In Pramuka market, Java, 1.5 million wild birds sold/year - March 2008, 23 tonnes of frozen pangolins seized en route between Indonesia and China. - 2000, Sumatra exported 25 tonnes of turtles per week to China. World's largest importers of wildlife: USA, China USA: - 1992-2002, US trade in wildlife and wildlife products increased by 75% - 2002, legal shipments of wild live animals into the US were > 38,000 mammals, 365,000 birds, 2 million reptiles, 49 million amphibians - Unofficial estimates are that many tonnes of bushmeat from Africa are coming into the US every month China: - China is thought to be the world's largest importer of turtles, ivory, tiger skins and bones, and pangolins, and is thought to be the most important market for many other species - 2000, 25,000 turtles/week from Sumatra to China. This now down to 7,000, as turtle populations decline, and turtles are coming from elsewhere. Quantifying is difficult since much of the trade in the endangered species is illegal, with many methods of concealment used... Some more successful than others! Some species are more vulnerable to hunting than others. Especially vulnerable species are ones which: - Breed slowly - Live or breed in large groups - Have loud or conspicuous displays - Are slow and easy to catch So wildlife is vanishing. In Vietnam, 12 species of large animals have become extinct, or almost extinct, since 1950 as a result of hunting. These include the kouprey... Eld's deer.... Siamese crocodile... and batagur... And on the brink are the elephant and tiger. Another contributor to "empty forests" -- disease. In past 10 years, Ebola virus has reduced gorilla populations in parts of northwest Congo by up to 95% The fungal disease chytridiomycosis is the devastating some amphibian populations. In the Neotropics, it is the greatest cause of amphibian extinctions. Consequences of "empty forests": Animals are vital to tropical forests Species hunted first are large mammals and birds, which pollinate flowers, disperse seeds, and browse on plants In some forests, 80% of trees depend on large animals to disperse their seeds Hunting of prey can decimate predators: In India, human hunting can reduce tiger prey populations by up to 90%
29. NHTEC2_090112_066.JPG: The advancing wave of logging concessions in Cameroon and Gabon
30. NHTEC2_090112_093.JPG: Quantifying is difficult since much of the trade in the endangered species is illegal, with many methods of concealment used... Some more successful than others!
31. NHTEC2_090112_150.JPG: S. Joseph Wright (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute) Various slides: Extinctions caused by chytridiomycosis: - Up to 165 species have been driven to extinction since 1980. - Climate change has been implicated in the Andes where most extinctions have occurred (Pounds et al 2006 Nature) - Chytridiomycosis continues to spread to new species & regions. Take home messages: (1) Tropical species are particularly sensitive to temperature change. (2) Dispersal distances to cool refugees will be greatest in the tropics. (3) Forests only exist where 1960s temperatures averaged < 28 degrees Centigrade. (4) Average temperatures will exceed 28 degrees Centigrade for 75% of all tropical forests when temperatures are 3 degrees Centigrade warmer. (5) Climate change is already implicated in extinctions in tropical mountains (6) Global warming will have its greatest impact on biodiversity in the tropics even though greater warming in projected for higher latitudes.
32. NHTEC2_090112_190.JPG: Climate change: Predicted temperature increase under an intermediate emissions scenario (A1B) for 2080-2099
33. NHTEC2_090112_203.JPG: Modern temperatures: implications for biodiversity Temperature dependence of fitness varies with latitude. What the chart is showing is that species living in different parts of the world have reproduction capabilities that vary with the temperature. In the temperate zones, the relative fitness for reproduction is a fairly wide curve and most of the species live about 5 degrees centigrade below where that peak performance happens. In the tropics, the curve is much thinner and they live within about 3 degrees centigrade below where the peak performance happens. Unfortunately, the temperature increases are happening mostly in the tropics and estimates say temperatures there will increase about 5 degrees due to warming. This will put most of the species there into a population crash.
34. NHTEC2_090112_217.JPG: Plant response Slower tree growth in old-growth forest on BCI & in Malaysia The bottom line is that trees are growing slower than before as a response to increased heat.
35. NHTEC2_090112_221.JPG: Plant response Increased flowering in old-growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama So flowers are growing faster as the temperatures increase.
36. NHTEC2_090112_238.JPG: Frog declines & chytridiomycosis
37. NHTEC2_090112_300.JPG: William F. Laurance (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute) Much of his presentation was based on a survey of 80-some tropical reserves around the world. The researchers in each reserve if a variety of observed conditions (drivers) had increased or decreased over time. Just about every criteria showed, en masse, decreases for each of the categories: - Apex predators (lions) - Large, non-predatory species - Primates - Opportunistic omnivores (who they thought would be doing better) - Stream fish - Migratory species Some exceptions: - Understory birds (mostly no change, secondarily decreasing) - Game birds (no change and decreasing are tied) - Large frugivorous birds (mostly no change, secondarily increasing) - Stream-dwelling amphibians (mostly no change, secondarily increasing, not a single one saying things are better) - Disturbance- and Light-loving trees (mostly better) - Lianas and wines (mostly better -- thank you kudzu!) - Invasive plants (mostly increasing) - Invasive animals (mostly no change, secondarily increasing) - Human diseases (mostly increasing) - Natural forest cover (mostly no change, secondarily decreasing) - Hunting (mostly increasing) - Fires (mostly no change) - Selective logging (mostly no change, secondarily decreasing) - Air pollution (mostly no change, secondarily increasing) - River and stream sedimentation (mostly no change, secondarily increasing) - Rising temperatures (mostly no change, secondarily increasing, not a single one decreasing) - Droughts (increasing and no change tied) - Automobile traffic (mostly no change, secondarily increasing) - Nearby human populations (mostly no change, secondarily increasing) Other drivers showing little net change: - Illegal mining - Pastoralism/grazing - Rainfall - River/stream flows - Seed predation Far more reserves are getting worse than are getting better Some drivers are stable (or even improving), but many are worsening Reserves with worsening drivers are declining ecologically Smaller reserves are generally more vulnerable Conclusions: - Most tropical reserves are being altered, often seriously --- Many guilds declining --- Other guilds poorly studied - Threats are eclectic, but some perils are common --- Climate change --- Air & water pollution --- Declining freshwater ecosystems --- Growing populations --- Increasing isolation --- Expanding roads - Many reserves too small and poorly protected to buffer external threats and climate change
38. NHTEC2_090112_425.JPG: Far more reserves are getting worse than are getting better
39. NHTEC2_090112_429.JPG: Some drivers are stable (or even improving), but many are worsening
40. NHTEC2_090112_432.JPG: Reserves with worsening drivers are declining ecologically
41. NHTEC2_090112_436.JPG: Smaller reserves are generally more vulnerable
42. NHTEC2_090112_439.JPG: Other key drivers of degradation
43. NHTEC2_090112_458.JPG: Claudio Valladares-Padua (Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas and Wildlife Trust Alliance)
44. NHTEC2_090112_586.JPG: S. Joseph Wright (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute) Various slides: We agree: (1) Habitat loss, direct persecution and climate change are the primary threats to tropical biodiversity (2) Direct persecution threatens larger and charismatic species (3) Global warming will bring novel climates to the tropics with unforeseen consequences and is implicated in an ongoing mass extinction of tropical montane frogs (Pounds et al 2006 Nature) (4) Forest loss varies geographically from <10% to >90% (5) Rates of land use and land cover change are accelerating throughout the tropics. Points of controversy: (1) How much tropical forest will remain in the future? -- 5-10% vs 32-45% (2) What is the conservation value of altered forests? -- Minimal vs substantial (3) What are the implications of forest change for extinction? -- Uniform vs variable (you can't use insects as predictors for what happens to higher animals) (4) How effective are tropical nature reserves? -- Paper parks vs generally successful -- Is the area protected sufficient? Bottom line: We disagree about the threat habitat loss poses for tropical biodiversity Some believe climate change poses a greater threat. Policy implications: The responsible party should contribute to the solution. Policy implications of our debate Threat -- Responsible party -- Solution Hunting -- Local people & government -- Reserves & regulation Habitat loss -- Local people & government -- Reserves & regulation Climate change -- % global carbon dioxide from fossil fuel: USA 22%, China 19%, EU 18%, Other developed countries 11% -- Mitigation: cash payments to protect C stock in forests, Adaptation: not being addressed
45. NHTEC2_090112_616.JPG: Points of controversy (1) How much tropical forest will remain in the future? Estimates vary considerably.
46. NHTEC2_090112_621.JPG: Points of controversy (1) How much tropical forest will remain in the future? 5-10% vs 32-45%
47. NHTEC2_090112_642.JPG: (4) How effective are tropical nature reserves? -- Is the area protected sufficient?
48. NHTEC2_090112_646.JPG: Points of controversy -- are individual reserves effective?
49. NHTEC2_090112_657.JPG: Policy implications of our debate Threat -- Responsible party -- Solution Hunting -- Local people & government -- Reserves & regulation Habitat loss -- Local people & government -- Reserves & regulation Climate change -- % global carbon dioxide from fossil fuel: USA 22%, China 19%, EU 18%, Other developed countries 11% -- Mitigation: cash payments to protect C stock in forests, Adaptation: not being addressed
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- Clough, Wayne appears on:
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  - 2014_DC_Anthem_140614 Natl Museum of Amer History -- Event: Raise It Up! Anthem for America -- Misc
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  - 2012_DC_SSHP_121218 Smithsonian -- Smithsonian Staff Holiday Party (2012) @ Reynolds Center
  - 2012_DC_STN_120928 Smithsonian Teachers' Night (2012) @ Donald Reynolds Center
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  - 2011_DC_SSHP_111213 Smithsonian -- Smithsonian Staff Holiday Party (2011) @ Reynolds Center
  - 2011_DC_ExperimentO_110714 Reynolds Center -- Event: Opening Reception -- Great American Experiment Exhibit (donor event)
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- Samper, Cristián appears on:
  - 2011_DC_SSHP_111213 Smithsonian -- Smithsonian Staff Holiday Party (2011) @ Reynolds Center
  - 2011_DC_Wilson_110318 DC Env Film Festival (2011) -- E.O. Wilson @ Natl Museum of Natural History
  - 2010_DC_SINH_Opening_100317 Natl Museum of Natural History -- Event: Hall of Human Origins -- Opening Event
  - 2009_DC_STN_Welcome_091023 Smithsonian Teachers' Night (2009) @ Natl Museum of Natural History -- ONLY the welcoming presentation
  - 2007_DC_NHSuzuki_070317 DC Env Film Festival (2007) -- An Afternoon with David Suzuki @ Natl Museum of Natural History
  - 2003_DC_JSS_031203 James Smithson Society event -- Natural History (Hall of Mammals)
2009 photos: Equipment this year: I mostly used the Fuji S100fs. I've also got a Nikon D90 and a newer Fuji -- the S200EHX -- both of which are nice but I still prefer the flexibility of the Fuji. Trips this year: Niagara Falls, NY, New York City, Civil War Trust conferences in Gettysburg, PA and Springfield, IL, and my 4th consecutive San Diego Comic-Con trip (including Los Angeles, Yosemite, Death Valley, Kings Canyon, Joshua Tree, etc). Ego strokes: I had a picture of a Lincoln-Obama cupcake sculpture published in Civil War Times and WUSA-9, the local CBS affiliate, ran a quick piece on me. A picture that I took at the annual Abraham Lincoln Symposium appeared in the National Archives' "Prologue" magazine. I became a volunteer with the Smithsonian American Art Museum. Number of photos taken this year: 417,000.
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